One of the three strongest fibers, with diversified product development
Aramid fiber is a high-performance chemical synthetic fiber. Aramid, carbon fiber, and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) are known as the world's three major high-performance fiber materials. The full name of aramid is "aromatic polyamide fiber", and its English name is " Aramid Fiber ", which refers to long-chain synthetic polyamide fibers with at least 85% of the amide bonds directly connected to the aromatic ring . Aramid fiber has excellent properties such as low density, high modulus, high strength, cut resistance, corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, insulation and flame retardancy. Its strength is 5 to 6 times that of steel wire, its modulus is 2 to 3 times that of steel wire or glass fiber, its toughness is 2 times that of steel wire, and its weight is only about 1/5 of that of steel wire. At a temperature of 560 degrees, it does not decompose or melt, and its comprehensive performance is outstanding. Commercial aramid products are mainly meta and para. According to the type of aromatic ring , aramid can be divided into two categories: fully aromatic polyamide fiber and heterocyclic aromatic polyamide fiber; according to the position where the amide bond is connected to the benzene ring, it can be divided into meta, para and ortho positions. There are two main types of aramid that have been commercially produced and applied : meta-aramid (PMIA, 1313) and para-aramid (PPTA, 1414) . The production technology of para-aramid is more difficult, and the product performance is better. Meta- aramid and para- aramid products are diversified and can meet the needs of many fields. Aramid products are formed by spinning the polymer after the polymerization of amide and acyl chloride. According to whether it is dyed, aramid is divided into colored silk and white silk; according to the spinning form, it is divided into filament and staple fiber . Meta- aramid also has conductive fiber, yarn and other product forms, and para-aramid twisted yarn, woven fabric, pulp and other differentiated products can meet the use needs of different fields.
Leading performance in all aspects, with multiple applications
Aramid has excellent ductility, high temperature resistance and flame retardancy. Among the three materials, aramid has the best ductility, and the elongation at break of meta-aramid can reach 25~40%, which is more than ten times that of carbon fiber and UHMWPE. The elastic modulus of para-aramid is relatively high, up to 120GPa, indicating that its material has high stiffness and small elastic deformation; carbon fiber is the most resistant to high temperatures among the three materials, with an operating temperature of up to 2000 ℃ and a decomposition temperature of up to 3700 ℃ . The operating temperature of aramid is -196~250 ℃ , which can meet daily use. The oxygen index of aramid and carbon fiber is as high as 28% or more, and the flame retardancy is good. UHMWPE has the lowest density, but its oxygen index is as low as 17.3%, which cannot achieve high temperature resistance and flame retardancy. Meta- aramid has excellent flame retardancy, high temperature resistance, insulation, chemical stability and radiation resistance. The amide group in the meta-aramid molecular chain is connected to the meta-phenyl group, which has no conjugation effect, low internal rotation potential energy, relatively good chain segment flexibility, and low crystallinity, so its modulus is low, elongation is high, and the feel and comfort of the fabric are better. Meta- aramid has excellent flame retardancy, high temperature resistance, insulation and chemical stability, and is widely used in fireproof materials, high-temperature conveyor belts, high-temperature filter materials, high-temperature protective fabrics, electrical insulation and heat insulation, etc. Para- aramid has high strength, high modulus, high temperature resistance, strong toughness, flame retardancy, chemical resistance, corrosion resistance and dimensional stability. Para- aramid has very high strength, with a specific tensile strength of 5 to 6 times that of steel fiber and a specific modulus of 2 times that of steel fiber; the thermal decomposition temperature reaches 570 ℃ , and it can be used for a long time at ±200 ℃ ; compared with carbon fiber, aramid is soft and non-brittle, and can resist strong impact; it has good dimensional stability, does not shrink in hot air, and has small deformation; it has good chemical corrosion resistance. The high crystallinity and strong intermolecular interaction of para-aramid can prevent chemicals from invading the polymer structure, and its performance is stable in the pH range of 2 to 12. Aramid is widely used as a reinforcing material. With the rapid development of industrial production and high-tech industries today, the demand for high-performance materials in industries such as automobiles, engineering machinery, microelectronics, communications, and ships is getting stronger and stronger, and the requirements are getting higher and higher. It is difficult for general materials to meet the needs. Aramid polymers and their fiber products play an increasingly important role in different fields, such as building materials, electronic appliances, bulletproof products, transportation, military, aviation and other fields. In 2011, in the "Oriental Time and Space" program, aramid was praised as "a thread that moves 20 industrial fields", which shows its important value in the industry.
Development history: Localization is imperative, high-quality and comprehensive replacement
The development process of new materials is to improve performance and replace domestic products. With the progress of science and technology and the overall improvement of the quality of life, new materials are gradually replacing traditional materials with their superior performance. On the one hand, new materials can better meet the material needs of different fields through optimized performance; on the other hand, many new materials have low-carbon, clean, renewable and other properties. This type of material gradually replaces traditional high-energy consumption materials, which is in line with the era theme of energy revolution and "dual carbon". Comprehensive substitution determines that there are many downstream fields of new materials and huge development space. Foreign giant companies are at the forefront of the application of new materials. Domestic companies have broken through barriers and developed rapidly in the process of gradual research and development, bringing dual space to the market. The military market leads the development and domestic technology continues to break through. From the development process, aramid and carbon fiber were initially used in the military industry with their special performance advantages. Later, American and Japanese companies represented by DuPont, Teijin, Toray, etc. continued to develop and industrialize, leading the technology and market. Chinese companies began to exert their strength after the 20th century, catching up with the world's leading technology and gradually making breakthroughs. At present, excellent representative companies have emerged in aramid, carbon fiber and UHMWPE, filling the technical gaps in China. The high-performance fiber industry is characterized by technology intensiveness and huge investment. At present, high-performance fibers are entering a new stage of vigorous development. The continuous improvement and serialization of performance and specifications of various varieties and the emergence of new varieties have made high-performance fibers enter the era of "tailor-made". The rapid development of high-tech industries such as aerospace, new energy, ocean, biomedicine, communication information, and military industry has put higher and higher requirements on the performance of fiber materials, and has also promoted the research and development of new fibers. In the future, high-performance fibers will develop in the direction of low cost and high quality.
Downstream demand is flourishing, and new energy is creating a larger market
2023 annual report, the global nominal production capacity is about 150,000-160,000 tons, an increase of about 10% year-on-year; the global demand is about 120,000-130,000 tons, an increase of about 11% year-on-year. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the growth in demand in downstream optical fiber and cable, personal protection and other fields. Preliminary statistics show that the global scale will reach US$4.7 billion in 2023, and it is expected to reach US$8.3 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.7% from 2023 to 2029. The demand for China's para-aramid industry in 2023 is 23,800 tons. The aramid industry has high technical barriers and production capacity is concentrated abroad. China's aramid industry started late, and the global production capacity is currently concentrated in overseas companies . The gross profit margin of the aramid industry is 30-40%, and the price is stable between 100,000 and 300,000 according to different performance and application . As a high-performance fiber, aramid has few domestic production enterprises and the product price is relatively stable. The price of meta -aramid is usually 100,000-200,000/ton, and the average price of para-aramid is between 200,000-300,000/ton. The profit margin of aramid enterprises is relatively stable, and the gross profit margin is usually between 30-40%, which is a high-gross-profit industry.
Protective clothing opens up the meta- aramid market Aramid paper overcomes overseas barriers and increases in volume
global demand for meta-aramid is mainly for insulating paper and honeycomb core materials, and China's demand structure still has much room for improvement.
From a global perspective, due to its outstanding high temperature resistance, flame retardancy and insulation, meta- aramid is mainly used in electrical insulation and safety protection fabrics, accounting for 34% and 29% respectively, with relatively high technical content and product added value. In China, meta-aramid applications are still mainly protective clothing and relatively low-end industrial high-temperature filter materials, accounting for a total of 80%.
The demand for aramid paper accounts for 10%, and the emerging demand in the fields of communications and new energy vehicles accounts for 10%. Domestic manufacturers have sufficient production capacity and fierce competition in the low-end field, and there is still much room for improvement in the demand structure, especially in the high-end field.
Meta- aramid is an excellent choice for high temperature resistant protective fabrics. Meta-aramid has good flame retardancy, thermal insulation, textile properties and softness. It is an intrinsic flame retardant fabric. Compared with traditional post-processed flame retardant fabrics that soak the fabric in fire retardants, it has a longer flame retardant time, can be washed, has no melt droplets when exposed to fire, and does not produce toxic substances.
At present, firefighters' firefighting protective clothing usually consists of a multi-layer fabric structure, which includes the outer layer, waterproof and breathable layer, thermal insulation layer and lining from the outside to the inside. The outer layer fabric is mainly made of high-performance fiber materials, including aramid 1414 fiber, aramid 1313 fiber, PBI fiber, PBO fiber, etc. The waterproof and breathable layer can discharge water vapor from the wearer's internal environment, and block wind and external liquid water. It is generally made of a composite material of non-woven fabric and flame-retardant PTFE; the thermal insulation layer fabric is mainly made of three-dimensional mesh knitted fabric or non-woven material; the lining is also called the comfort layer, which has wearing comfort and flame retardant properties, and is generally a blended woven fabric of aramid fiber and flame retardant viscose fiber.
The average annual compound growth rate of the domestic fire protection market size from 2018 to 2023 is 6.13%. We expect that the demand for meta-aramid in the fire protection industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 6% in the future. The state has stipulated a number of standards for flame-retardant protective clothing. Flame-retardant clothing and heat-insulating clothing are clothing that provide heat insulation (protection) protection for workers in any field that may produce flames and high temperatures, such as fire protection, metallurgy, welding, electricity, chemical industry, and petroleum . In 2020, national mandatory standards such as "Flame-retardant Protective Clothing" and "Specifications for the Equipment of Personal Protective Equipment" were successively released. The national standard GB8965.1-2020 "Flame-retardant Protective Clothing" will be implemented on August 1, 2021, and it puts forward clearer and stricter requirements for the flame-retardant properties and physical properties of flame-retardant protective clothing, requiring all fabrics to meet the specified thermal protection performance values. Industrial protection and fire protection are the largest downstream application areas of meta-aramid , and the implementation of the new standard is expected to increase the demand for aramid .
The "Specifications for the Equipment of Individual Protective Equipment" issued by the Ministry of Emergency Management will be fully implemented on January 1, 2022. Safety accidents are related to criminal liability; production safety liability insurance will look at whether protective clothing is provided. The new regulations require the petroleum and petrochemical, nonferrous metallurgy, and non-coal mining industries to take the lead in implementation. Based on the weight and aramid content of flame-retardant clothing sold on the market, we estimate that the amount of meta-aramid corresponding to a single set of clothing is 1-1.5 kg. According to the number of people in various industries shown by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Global Network, we estimate the annual demand for meta-aramid to be about 12,000 tons based on a 40% equipment ratio and an average annual number of 3 sets.
Taking into account that the replacement of stock and the progress of each enterprise's equipment may be slower than expected, we conservatively estimate that the annual growth rate of demand for meta -aramid in protective clothing from 2023 to 2025 will be 15%. Meta-aramid can be used for environmentally friendly filtration of high-temperature flue gas emitted from thermal power, cement, steel and other fields. In industrial production, the high-temperature flue gas emitted by thermal power plants, cement plants, and steel plants contains a large amount of nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and fine particles of dust, which cause great pollution to the atmospheric environment. Filter cloth and filter bag are key components of industrial dust removal or liquid filtration equipment. They directly determine the performance of the filtration equipment and the quality of the filtration effect. They are called the "heart" of the filtration equipment, and even affect whether the enterprise can meet the production standards. They are indispensable accessories for the production and operation of the enterprise. At the same time, filter cloth and bags are consumables and need to be replaced regularly to ensure the stability of the filtration effect. Their demand is continuous.
Meta-aramid has good flame retardancy, high temperature resistance, insulation and corrosion resistance, and can play a filtering role in high-temperature smoke environments. As environmental protection requirements become increasingly stringent, the demand for meta- aramid is strong.
At present, the rapid development of China's industry has also put great pressure on air quality. Among them, the large amount of fine particles in industrial smoke and dust is one of the important factors leading to the deterioration of China's air quality. According to the National Environmental Statistics Bulletin, heavy industries such as iron and steel metallurgy, coal-fired power plants, cement building materials, and petrochemicals are the main sources of flue gas dust emissions. On September 10, 2013, the State Council promulgated the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan", proposing that after five years of efforts, the overall air quality in the country will improve, and new thermal power, steel, petrochemical, cement, nonferrous metals, chemical and other enterprises and coal-fired boiler projects need to implement special emission limits for air pollutants. As the country pays more attention to environmental pollution issues, emission control standards in various regions and industries are becoming increasingly stringent, and special emissions and ultra-low emissions have become normalized.
In recent years, the overall fixed asset investment of China's manufacturing enterprises has shown a sustained growth trend. Under the current background of stricter conservation and environmental protection policies in China, many industries with relatively large water consumption and smoke emissions, such as steel, chemical, thermal power, metallurgy, mining and food, will face strict supervision. Stock replacement and incremental demand will drive the growth of the filter material market . As one of the main materials for environmentally friendly filter bags, meta-aramid has a relatively broad growth space.
The global and domestic consumption of meta-aramid is expected to continue to grow. At present, the development of the foreign meta- aramid industry is more mature, with a high degree of product series and differentiation, in-depth research on application technology, a high share of the high-end market, and a total production capacity of about 32,500 tons/year. DuPont is the world's largest meta -aramid production company and the first company to start large-scale industrial production, with a production capacity accounting for 53.1% of the global total production capacity; Taihe New Materials is currently the company with the largest domestic market share, with a market share of nearly 50%.
The global meta -aramid is generally in a state of oversupply. Among them, foreign companies such as DuPont and Teijin have high-quality products and occupy a dominant position in the international market. The downstream is mainly used in high-end consumer fields such as safety protection and aramid paper . In 2027, the global supply and demand of meta-aramid is expected to reach 85,000 tons and 70,000 tons respectively.
From the perspective of end-use consumption, the global demand for meta -aramid is mainly concentrated in high-end consumption areas such as safety protection and aramid paper , among which the demand for safety protection and aramid paper accounts for about 66%. Aramid paper is one of the main downstream products of aramid, and its applications are mainly electrical insulation and honeycomb core materials (structural weight reduction materials). Aramid paper is a sheet-like, lightweight composite material made from aramid chopped , precipitated or pulp fibers through a wet papermaking process.
For a long time, the aramid paper market has been mainly occupied by DuPont. The world's aramid paper is mainly used in the fields of electrical insulation and honeycomb core materials, accounting for 64% and 34% respectively . Compared with the international market, 91% of domestic aramid paper is used in the field of electrical insulation, and the application of honeycomb core materials with relatively complex technology still needs to be improved. Aramid paper honeycomb core materials can be used as core materials for sandwich structure composite materials. Aramid paper honeycomb core materials are made into special structures by a series of complex processes such as aramid paper coating, lamination, hot pressing, trimming, stretching, shaping, dipping, and curing. It is a special material with a hexagonal structure of a natural honeycomb, which is lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus, strong structural stability, and has the advantages of sound insulation, heat insulation, and flame retardancy. It is widely used in aerospace, rail transportation and other fields. It has become the preferred core material for aircraft composite honeycomb sandwich structures, which can reduce the weight of aircraft structures and achieve wave transmission, noise reduction, and heat insulation properties of functional components. Aramid paper honeycomb sandwich core materials have been used in the side panels, roof panels, seats, partitions, luggage racks and skylight panels of high-speed rail vehicles , which can reduce the weight of the vehicle and increase the speed of the train.
Aramid paper honeycomb core can also be used in the manufacture of lithium battery separators, fan blades, ships and yachts, racing boats, skis, RVs and other products. At present, aramid paper has been fully and maturely applied in the fields of domestic high-speed rail and Boeing aircraft. Aramid paper is a high-performance paper-based insulation material that can be used in high-end and complex working conditions insulation systems.
Meta- aramid paper has excellent electrical insulation properties, good thermal stability, dimensional stability, flame retardancy and corrosion resistance, and is a special insulating paper with high added value. Compared with traditional paper-based (plant cellulose-based) insulation materials, meta-aramid paper has better temperature resistance and weather resistance, can better ensure the stable and safe operation of power equipment, and can better meet the extreme requirements of high-power and high-voltage equipment, thus promoting the progress and development of the modern electrical and electrical industry.
The country attaches great importance to the technological breakthrough of aramid paper and provides a good policy and market environment for the development of the industry. Aramid paper was first successfully developed and industrialized by DuPont in the United States in the 1960s. After 60 years of development, DuPont aramid paper has become increasingly mature in both research and development level and large-scale production, occupying a monopoly position in technology and the market. China attaches great importance to the development of aramid fiber and aramid paper related industries, but due to foreign technological blockades, no substantial progress was made until the end of the 20th century.
Entering the 21st century, Minstar successfully developed meta-aramid paper, breaking the global monopoly of DuPont in the United States, making China the second country in the world capable of producing aramid paper . Minstar has thus established its leading position in China's aramid paper industry . In 2021, aramid paper was included in the list of key new materials for development. In recent years, the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission , the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other government agencies or departments have repeatedly issued relevant policies and measures to continue to support the development of the aramid paper industry , providing a good policy and market environment for expanding and strengthening the aramid paper industry.
In recent years, the rapid development of China's high-speed trains, domestic aircraft manufacturing, aircraft carriers and other equipment manufacturing industries has driven the development of aramid insulation paper and aramid paper honeycomb core materials.
According to the data, due to the strong demand from downstream industries, China's aramid paper consumption is expected to reach 12,290 tons by 2028, with a CAGR of 16.27% from 2023 to 2028; it is expected that the Chinese aramid paper market will reach US$439 million in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.92% from 2023 to 2028. There are five major aramid paper manufacturers in the world , namely DuPont, Minstar , Chaomeis, Ganzhou Longbang, and Shidai Huaxian. DuPont was the first to complete the research and development of aramid fiber and its downstream aramid paper and realize industrialization in the 1960s , leading the development direction of aramid paper-based materials. For a long time, DuPont has been in a monopoly position in the global market with its first-mover advantage. Its aramid paper products have high performance indicators and rich varieties, occupying a major market share in the global aramid paper market . Minshida has made breakthroughs in key "bottleneck" technologies in the preparation process of aramid paper, such as fiber dispersion, wet forming, and high-temperature finishing, breaking the foreign technology monopoly and becoming the first domestic aramid paper manufacturer . It has realized the domestic large-scale preparation of aramid paper and effectively made up for the shortcomings of China's aramid paper industry chain.
Para-aramid has outstanding performance and opens up space for military and civilian use
Para -aramid is a dual-use product with great application potential, mainly in the four major fields of bulletproof protection, electronic communications, automotive industry, and industrial reinforcement . In addition to high temperature resistance, flame retardancy and insulation, para -aramid also has the characteristics of high strength and high modulus, and its wear resistance and cut resistance are also excellent, which is very useful in many special application scenarios. Globally, para -aramid is mainly used for bulletproof protection and automotive friction materials (such as hoses, brake pads, clutch plates, etc.), each accounting for 30% of the total demand. 50% of domestic para-aramid is used in optical cables. Para- aramid can also be used to manufacture tire cords for high-end cars and for the belt layer of radial tires, accounting for about 10% of global demand. Para-aramid cord has the advantages of high strength, small deformation, low thermal shrinkage, low heat resistance and creep, which can reduce tire mass and rolling resistance, and is conducive to improving the puncture and cut resistance of tires . The application scope of aramid is gradually expanding, and downstream demand is growing year by year. With the rapid development of applications in transportation, optical fiber communication, high-speed railway, aviation reinforcement, lightweight automobile radial tire cord fabric and brake pads, and bulletproof protection in China, the demand for para-aramid will be more vigorous. At present, domestic aramid II has achieved large-scale supply of basic models and some high-end products, with a total annual production capacity of about 15,000 tons. However, compared with foreign countries, the overall level of aramid II industrialization in China is still relatively low, with many manufacturers but small production capacity and low degree of integration, showing obvious "scattered and small" characteristics. It is still in a critical stage of transformation and upgrading to large-scale production. With the domestic aramid replacing imports, aramid application technology has steadily improved, the demand for para -aramid has increased higher than expected, downstream demand has flourished, and new energy has spawned a larger market. By 2027, China's demand will reach 30,000 tons/year. The rapid development of information and communication has driven the laying of optical cables, and para- aramid is an excellent optical fiber reinforcement material. Since China officially issued 5G commercial licenses in 2019, domestic 5G construction has been rapidly promoted, and 5G base stations have been densely deployed. The rapid growth of the amount of data transmitted and the increasing requirements for the information capacity of information transmission media will significantly increase the demand for optical fiber compared with the 4G era. Optical cable is a communication cable composed of optical fiber and sheath. As of the end of June 2024, the total length of optical cable lines in China will reach 67.12 million kilometers, a net increase of 2.799 million kilometers over the end of the previous year. In 2023, China's optical fiber and cable production will reach 350 million core kilometers, accounting for 62.5% of global production. Para -aramid has excellent properties such as high modulus. It can be used as a tension member in optical cables to protect small and fragile optical fibers from elongation when subjected to tension, thereby not damaging the transmission performance of light. China is the largest producer of optical fiber and cable. Against the background of the rapid development of information and communication driven by 5G construction, the demand for aramid for optical fiber reinforcement will be considerable. In the field of national defense and military industry, aramid and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) have a partial substitution relationship. UHMWPE has a low density and meets the demand for lightweight bulletproof vests. At present, the bulletproof vest market is basically dominated by high-strength PE, supplemented by PE/aramid composite materials. Due to the outstanding flame retardancy and high temperature resistance of aramid , it is still irreplaceable and has market space. In terms of bulletproof helmets, UHMWPE has poor creep resistance and is easy to deform. At present, the market is still dominated by aramid . High-temperature scenarios (industrial protection, industrial filtration, etc.), scenarios that are extremely sensitive to material thickness (insulating paper), and scenarios with high requirements for fire resistance (firefighting) have a large demand for aramid. UHMWPE is mainly used in marine fisheries, textile products, safety protection, military equipment and other fields. Domestic aramid coating is moving towards industrialization and opening the industry's secondary growth curve
. Diaphragm coating improves battery performance, and wet coating is the current mainstream technology. With the continuous improvement of new energy vehicles and 3C battery technology, the performance requirements for diaphragms are also getting higher and higher. The original dry and wet base membranes are limited by the low melting point of PE and poor thermal stability. They gradually cannot meet the existing safety requirements. Coated diaphragms have gradually become the mainstream of diaphragm development. By coating the surface with inorganic materials, heat-resistant polymer materials or a mixture of the two, a coated diaphragm is formed, which can greatly optimize the performance of the diaphragm. However, the cost, performance and technical requirements of different coated diaphragms vary greatly. The diaphragm products on the market are gradually differentiated, and the product types are increasing. Common coating materials include inorganic coating materials such as alumina and boehmite ; organic coating materials such as PVDF and aramid; and various composite coating materials. Aramid coating has significant advantages and is expected to gradually replace traditional inorganic coating methods. Aramid has strong temperature resistance, does not melt below 400°C, and only carbonizes and decomposes when the temperature exceeds 400°C; the limiting oxygen index LOI is 29-32%, and it will not spontaneously combust in the air. It has good flame retardancy and will automatically extinguish when leaving the flame. It has a low dielectric constant and can maintain excellent electrical insulation. It has strong chemical stability, acid and alkali resistance, can only swell but not dissolve in some organic solvents, and has high mechanical strength. Based on the excellent safety characteristics of meta-aramid, aramid coated diaphragms are gradually used in the field of lithium batteries. Many studies at home and abroad have shown that the temperature resistance, toughness, puncture resistance, oxidation resistance, comprehensive life and performance of aramid-coated diaphragms have been greatly improved, which is an important condition for realizing high-energy density batteries in the future. Foreign aramid coating technology is mature, and domestic is in its infancy. The technology and patents of aramid coating have long been monopolized by foreign companies. Teijin developed aramid-coated diaphragms in 2019, which improved the capacity, heat resistance and discharge efficiency of batteries. Sumitomo Chemical of Japan expanded the production of aramid-coated diaphragms in 2015. This high-temperature resistant battery diaphragm has been used in Tesla Model S electric vehicles. Domestic companies such as Enjie have also tried to produce aramid-coated diaphragms, but due to patent restrictions, high costs, and substandard technology, large-scale production has not yet been achieved. The high cost has limited the industrialization development of aramid-coated diaphragms in China. The layout of aramid companies in diaphragm coating is expected to change the development pattern of the industry. At present, the cost of traditional PVDF and boehmite coating is about 0.5 yuan/square meter, and the price of coated base film is about 2.5 yuan/square meter. However, due to the long-term monopoly of foreign countries, the price of aramid-coated diaphragms is much higher than this. Taihe New Materials recently announced the layout of aramid coated diaphragms. The pilot products were verified in 2023 and have been industrialized. As an aramid production company, Taihe New Materials has advantages in raw material costs , and there is no need to add costs for waste liquid recycling. Aramid coated diaphragms are expected to achieve an overall cost that is not much different from the cost of traditional PVDF or ceramic coatings, thereby promoting the progress of the entire coating industry. We estimate that aramid coated diaphragms will drive aramid demand by 25,000 tons in 2025, ushering in a market space of 37.4 billion yuan and a profit margin of 12.5 billion yuan. We predict that the shipments of lithium battery diaphragms in 2025-2028 will be 22.8, 34.2, and 46.2 billion square meters, respectively. According to the wet coating penetration rates of 70%, 80%, and 90% and the aramid coating penetration rates of 10%, 20%, and 30%, the corresponding aramid coated diaphragm production capacity in 2023-2025 will be 1.6, 5.5, and 12.5 billion square meters, respectively. Based on the single-sided coating of 2g/m2, it is estimated that there will be an increase of 3192, 10944, and 24948 tons of aramid in the next three years. Based on the unit price of 3 yuan/m2 and the profit of 1 yuan/m2 for aramid diaphragm coating, the market space of 4.8 billion, 16.4 billion, and 37.4 billion yuan and the profit space of 1.6 billion, 5.5 billion, and 12.5 billion yuan in 2025-2028.
Technology creates high barriers, and forging ahead creates a good situation
supply side is globally dominated, and domestic substitution is accelerating. The supply of meta-aramid is concentrated in the United States, China, Japan and South Korea, and DuPont occupies half of the world. The global meta-aramid production capacity is mainly concentrated in the United States, China, Japan and South Korea. At present, the global annual production capacity of meta-aramid is 55,500 tons, and the main manufacturers include DuPont in the United States, Taihe New Materials, Teijin in Japan , etc. The domestic meta- aramid production capacity is mainly provided by two major suppliers, Taihe New Materials and Chaomeis, and Taihe New Materials ranks second in the world. By the end of 2023, Taihe New Materials' meta-aramid production capacity will have reached 16,000 tons, with a global market share of more than 30%, second only to DuPont in the United States. Localization is progressing rapidly, but there is still a lot of room for growth. In 2023, China's meta-aramid production will be about 13,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The United States and Japan occupy an absolute advantage in the global supply of para-aramid. At present, the nominal capacity of domestic para-aramid devices exceeds 20,000 tons, but since most companies are still in small-scale production or pilot stage, the actual effective capacity and output are far less than the nominal capacity. China's actual para-aramid production is about 18,000 tons, an increase of about 50% year-on-year; the demand for para-aramid is about 21,500 tons, an increase of about 20.8% year-on-year. The global annual production capacity of para-aramid is 110,000 tons, and the main manufacturers include Teijin of Japan, DuPont of the United States, Taihe New Materials, and Cologne of South Korea. Among them, Taihe New Materials with a production capacity of 6,000 tons is the largest domestic producer. Part of the supply still comes from imported products from DuPont, Teijin and other companies. DuPont monopolizes the main production capacity of aramid paper, and domestic companies are working hard to break the technical barriers. In 2023, the global aramid paper production capacity will be about 89,000 tons/year, with DuPont of the United States having the highest production capacity. Domestic manufacturers have achieved the localization of meta-aramid paper through technical research , and China's current production ranks second in the world. Data shows that China's annual output of aramid paper has reached 34,600 tons, accounting for 39% of the world's total output, making it the world's largest producer and occupying 80% of the global market share. Aramid paper products in the mid- and low-end fields have been fully rolled out, and high-end products are gradually replacing imported products.
building high barriers in the aramid industry and policy support accelerate the growth of the industry
The aramid industry has a good structure, and the key is the high barriers caused by production technology and engineering integration . In the aramid processing process, there are three main links: polymerization, spinning, and recycling. Phenylenediamine and phthaloyl chloride first generate aramid polymers through polycondensation reactions. The properties of the polymer determine the stability of the entire aramid fiber. The polymer is then dissolved in an organic solvent and then aramid fiber is obtained through a spinning process . The spinning process determines the performance of aramid and is also the key to the cost end . The recovery of waste liquids such as organic solvents used in the aramid processing process is also the key to the entire process flow, which can save costs and achieve zero emissions. The polymerization process of aramid mainly includes low-temperature solution polycondensation and interfacial polycondensation. Among them, the low-temperature solution polycondensation method has become the most important industrial production process for meta-aramid and para-aramid at home and abroad due to its high production efficiency, relatively simple process, low solvent consumption, and lower cost. Due to the high technical difficulty, complex process, and high investment cost, only a few foreign companies such as DuPont adopt the interfacial polycondensation method to produce meta-aramid Nomex. The spinning process of meta- aramid can be divided into dry spinning, wet spinning and dry-jet wet spinning. The main meta-aramid manufacturers are involved in all three methods, among which domestic manufacturers mainly use wet spinning. Para- aramid has a lyotropic nematic liquid crystal structure. Aramid can fully stretch out in the solution due to its rigid rod-shaped molecular structure and strong hydrogen bonding between molecules. When the para-aramid spinning solution passes through the spinning hole, the macromolecules will be oriented under the action of high shear stress. If the appropriate coagulation bath conditions are selected, the orientation and crystal structure in the para-aramid solution can be well preserved, and then after appropriate heat treatment and stretching, the crystallinity and orientation degree can be further increased, so that the obtained fiber has extremely high strength and modulus, becoming a high-performance fiber. The spinning process of para-aramid is mainly dry-jet wet spinning, and technology is the technical difficulty that restricts the industrialization of para-aramid. Since para -aramid can only be dissolved in concentrated sulfuric acid, and sulfuric acid has low volatility, the solvent cannot be removed by dry spinning, so para-aramid spinning cannot be done by dry spinning. Wet spinning cannot achieve high-multiple stretching of the fiber, which affects the mechanical properties of aramid , so para-aramid is not suitable for wet spinning. Taking DuPont's Kevlar fiber as an example, its production steps include: mixing the polymer with frozen concentrated sulfuric acid and dissolving it; heating the spinning solution to 85 °C to form a liquid crystal solution; filtering the spinning solution and extruding it from the spinneret with a gear pump; stretching the extruded liquid by about 6 times in an air layer with an air gap of about 8mm; the liquid filaments are solidified in a coagulation bath at a temperature of 5~20 °C and containing 5%~20% sulfuric acid; the filaments are washed with water after coming out of the coagulation bath, heated and dried at 160~210 °C , and wound to obtain the finished product. The spinning process of aramid is complicated, and due to the corrosiveness of concentrated sulfuric acid, the requirements for equipment are very high. In addition, the process control is relatively complex and the production cost is high, which makes the industrialization of para-aramid relatively slow. Foreign pioneers such as DuPont and Teijin have built extremely high technical barriers. The application of aramid in important fields such as national defense, military industry, aerospace, etc. determines its strategic significance and value. As one of the most widely used high-performance fibers, aramid is an indispensable strategic material for national security and plays an irreplaceable role in national defense fields such as military protective equipment and aerospace. In order to meet the needs of modern warfare, bulletproof vests in developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom are all made of aramid. The lightweight of aramid bulletproof vests and helmets has effectively improved the rapid response capability and lethality of the army. In aviation and aerospace, aramid saves a lot of power fuel due to its light weight and high strength. Due to the high investment cost and technical difficulty of aramid, only a few developed countries such as the United States and Japan have been able to produce it commercially for a long time. Western countries regard China as a competitor and impose technical blockades and limited embargoes on China. Domestic aramid started late, and industrialization was once very difficult. The country attaches great importance to the independent industrialization of aramid and has introduced a series of policies to promote the development of the industry. In the future, high-performance fibers will be common core technologies in the fields of low carbonization, lightweight, corrosion resistance, etc., and will be the key to the core competitiveness of the country's manufacturing industry and low-carbon economy. Lightweight and high-strength materials are one of the ten key areas that need to be broken through in "Made in China 2025", and aramid and related composite materials products are one of the key materials. China has always attached great importance to aramid . The State Council, local governments, industry associations, etc. have formulated relevant policies to actively encourage and support the development of domestic para-aramid industry . In the future, the high-performance fiber and composite materials industry represented by aramid will focus on promoting the construction of collaborative innovation service platforms, focusing on product serialization, industrialization and production and demand docking, opening up application areas and guiding agglomeration development. Domestic enterprises have independently developed and made progress over the years to overcome high barriers and achieve domestic substitution. Taking the leading domestic enterprise Taihe New Materials as an example, the company has established a system to support innovation, lead innovation, and encourage innovation, repeatedly breaking through "stuck neck" technology, and won the National Science and Technology Progress Award three times. Over the past decade, domestic enterprises have continued to invest a lot of R&D funds, and have made continuous progress in equipment manufacturing, raw material polymerization, spinning technology and other processes, successfully breaking through the barriers of meta-aramid and para-aramid production technology and aramid paper . In 2019, Sinochem International invested 1.25 billion to produce 5,000 tons/year of para-aramid, and the investment amount was still relatively high, at 250,000/ton. The reduction in investment density reflects the technological progress of aramid processing, the profit margin is further increased, and the industry barriers are further improved. Based on the analysis of demand and supply, we predict the supply and demand pattern of the aramid industry from 2025 to 2028 : Domestic meta-aramid: Protective clothing: According to the calculations above, protective clothing is expected to become the largest demand area for meta-aramid downstream in the next three years. According to the standard of 40% equipment ratio and an average annual number of 3 sets, we estimate that the annual demand for meta-aramid is about 12,000 tons; considering that the progress of stock replacement and equipment of various enterprises may be slower than expected, we conservatively estimate that the annual demand growth rate for meta- aramid for protective clothing from 2025 to 2028 will be 15%. Industrial filtration: According to the data, the market size of China's high-temperature filter material industry will grow by 8% from 2020 to 2023. Considering the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, we conservatively estimate that the growth rate of meta-aramid used in the industrial filtration field is 3%. Aramid paper: According to the data, the market size of aramid paper will grow by 10% from 2020 to 2023. The price of aramid paper is expected to grow by about 5% in the next three years . Excluding price growth, we conservatively estimate that the demand for aramid paper will grow by 5% from 2025 to 2028. Lithium battery diaphragm coating: According to the above calculations, we estimate that the new demand for aramid for diaphragm coating will be 5,000 tons/13,000 tons/26,000 tons respectively from 2025 to 2028. It is expected that the demand growth rate in other fields will be 5% from 2025 to 2028. Domestic para-aramid: National defense and military industry: Demand changes with international politics and other situations, and is more accidental, which may bring new demand in the short term. According to the Ministry of Finance, China's defense expenditure will grow at an average rate of 8% from 2020 to 2023. Considering the domestic substitution space and new demand for para-aramid , we expect the demand for para-aramid in the defense industry to grow by 10% from 2025 to 2028. Optical fiber and cable: According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the growth rate of China's optical cable line length will be 11% from 2020 to 2023. Considering the gradual maturity of the optical fiber and cable industry, we expect the demand to grow by 10% from 2025 to 2028. Reinforcement materials: As a reinforcement material, para-aramid is rapidly developing in the fields of high-speed railways, aviation reinforcement, lightweight automotive radial tire cord fabrics and brake pads, and the growth rate is expected to be 10% from 2025 to 2028. Considering the domestic substitution space and demand growth, the demand growth rate in other fields is expected to be 10%. Global (excluding China) demand: As overseas demand is in a relatively stable development stage, we conservatively estimate that the global (excluding China) demand for meta-aramid in protective clothing, industrial filtration, aramid paper and other industries will grow by 5%; conservatively estimate that the global (excluding China) demand for meta-aramid in military industry, optical fiber and cable, reinforcement materials and other industries will grow by 6%. The supply and demand of meta-aramid and para-aramid are still tight in the short term. In the long run, the demand for new protective clothing, diaphragm coating and other industries may drive the overall scale of the industry. Meta-aramid is in short supply, and para -aramid supply and demand are in a tight balance. China's aramid production and consumption are both on the rise. In 2023, the external dependence will be 23%. It is estimated that there will still be about 2,000-3,000 tons of import substitution space for traditional demand in the next three years. According to the global para- aramid application forecast, para- aramid accounts for nearly 80% of the application in bulletproof protection, composite materials and electronic communications . By 2024, the global demand is expected to reach 101,700 tons/year. Domestic para- aramid has a large application demand mainly in the fields of electronic communications and composite materials, accounting for about 67% of the market share . According to the global meta-aramid application forecast, from the perspective of terminal consumption, the global meta- aramid demand is mainly concentrated in high-end consumption fields such as safety protection and aramid paper , among which the demand for safety protection and aramid paper accounts for about 66% in total. The domestic meta- aramid application forecast is mainly concentrated in the fields of filtration materials and safety protection, among which the demand for filtration materials accounts for about 63%, and the demand for safety protection accounts for about 26%, accounting for nearly 90% in total.
